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In the year 2010, we will soon be hearing good news from the macroeconomic side, but the interest rate will continue to rise. So, we can expect a lot of instability in the year 2010. According to different analysis, gold prices will go unstable in 2010, but in a downward direction. One of the reasons is that investors who hedge against uncertainty and inflation risks are supporting gold prices. The assumption for 2010 is $900 which is a rise of 13%.
Dollar and gold prices move in the opposite direction, whereas gold and euro move together. So, if euro is in crisis, we will see losses for gold in the future. Over the last years, there has been correlation of +0.52 among gold and euro. It is expected that this correlation may even rise further.
But, the general trend in the gold market is not so different. For a major change, interest rates across the globe will rise, which is not likely to happen in 2010. Gold is said to be a substitute for the leading currencies of the world by many experts. Gold market went really well in the year 2009. But, this dynamic price increase will not continue further. With the ongoing rise in the US dollar, gold prices will decrease.
There are many drivers associated with the instability of gold in upward direction. One is inflation; the main driver is structural currency weakness. People have lost trust in paper money and dollar, which is the outcome of the financial crisis. All the participants in the market are looking for a secure insurance, and they want substitute for leading currencies of the world; the substitute is, no doubt, gold.
According to seasonal expert, the strongest seasonal period for gold is October to March. There is a hope that market conditions will improve with the passage of time, but for that, we need supply discipline, and sustained and positive demand trend. As gold and silver prices are hanging on the decision cliff, so is the US dollar, which keeps on fluctuating up and down.
On the other hand, there are people who are of the opinion that gold prices will go up. The reason is that almost all financial markets are driven by expectations of the events that may take in the future, not via event themselves. Some expectations like event of September 2009 are reaching to uncontrollable level. To make our life easier, it is a good idea to invest with primary trend. Gold primary trend is up for now. Some of the expectations are high inflation and decrease in US $. Expected is the continuing growth in China; with Yuan on the rise.
Failing situations of the banks in US, UK, UAE, Saudi Arabia and other Arab banks who are burdened with US debt are expected to fail. US expected to have a double-dip recovery. There are expectations of war in Middle East. With the recovery in world economy and rise in US economy, oil prices will go higher. If Chinese government pushes for it, people over there will start buying gold. When European countries will demand return of their physical gold in large quantity, the New York gold exchange will face trouble.
The best time to invest in gold was 2000-2002, when gold prices were low. Now, it is not a good idea to invest in gold, because it is under a lot of fluctuations, and its prices are short-lived. To make profits, you should try to speculate on the prices of Gold.
Learn how to buy gold in the times of recession by help of professionals.
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